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What’s in this issue;
Markets struggle as oil surges and geopolitical tensions escalate
Why rising energy prices are reshaping inflation expectations
Investor playbook: navigating volatility and higher-for-longer risks
Emerging Markets under pressure from the “energy tax”
The key data and events that could move markets next week
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What Moved Markets This Week
Markets remained under pressure as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continued to dominate sentiment, driving oil prices higher and pushing bond yields up.
Despite a delay in planned U.S. strikes on Iran, investors remained cautious, with equities struggling for direction as rising energy costs and inflation concerns weighed on global markets.
Key market drivers this week:
Middle East uncertainty kept risk appetite subdued: Ongoing tensions involving Iran continued to weigh on global equities, with markets reacting to every headline despite signs of delayed military escalation.
Oil prices remained elevated: Crude stayed above $100, reinforcing inflation fears and acting as the primary drag on equities globally.
Rising bond yields pressured valuations: Higher yields, driven by energy-led inflation concerns, weighed particularly on rate-sensitive sectors and limited upside in equities.
Global equities struggled for direction: U.S. stocks opened lower, while European markets slipped and the FTSE traded flat as macro uncertainty capped gains.
Energy-driven inflation fears returned: Markets increasingly priced in the risk that higher oil prices could delay central bank rate cuts and keep policy tighter for longer.
What This Means for Investors
Oil is dictating market direction: Energy prices are now the key transmission channel into inflation, rates, and equity performance.
Geopolitical risk is overriding macro data: Even with economic data releases, markets are being driven primarily by developments in the Middle East.
Higher-for-longer risk is back: Rising yields suggest markets are reassessing how quickly central banks can ease policy.
Investor Playbook
Keep exposure to energy and commodities: Elevated oil prices continue to support the sector amid supply uncertainty.
Be cautious on duration-sensitive assets: Growth stocks remain vulnerable to rising yields and inflation surprises.
Stay flexible and headline-aware: Markets are highly reactive — short-term positioning should adapt quickly to geopolitical developments.
Emerging Markets: Geopolitical Stagflation Takes Hold
As we enter the final week of Q1, the early-2026 “muddle-through” narrative has shifted to one of geopolitical stagflation.
Here’s what to watch:
1. China Data in Focus (Tue–Fri)
PMI releases will be key for EM sentiment. Watch for rising input prices alongside weak new orders—a sign higher oil is squeezing growth and weighing on EM equities.
2. Quarter-End Rebalancing
With global equities down sharply in March, institutional flows could turn contrarian. Some investors are beginning to “buy the dip” in EM bonds, anticipating a future shift from rate hikes to cuts.
3. Currency Pressure
A firm U.S. dollar continues to hit EM currencies:
INR near intervention levels
KRW & THB among weakest performers
High oil prices are intensifying pressure on energy importers.
4. The “Energy Tax” Divide
Winners: Energy exporters (e.g. Malaysia, Algeria)
Losers: Importers and small-cap EM stocks facing tightening liquidity
Key Events This Week
Tue: China NBS PMI
Wed/Fri: Caixin PMIs
Fri: Good Friday (low liquidity risk)
Bottom Line
EM’s recovery has stalled. With oil above $100, capital preservation remains key—especially for energy-importing economies.
🔭 Looking Forward: Soft Landing or Energy Shock?
As we head into the final stretch of March, markets are being pulled in two directions: a cooling global economy vs an intensifying energy shock driven by Middle East tensions.
This week will test whether the “soft landing” narrative can hold — or starts to crack.
🎯 The Big Theme: Jobs vs Inflation
🇺🇸 Friday — US Jobs Report (Nonfarm Payrolls)
After February’s -92K contraction, markets are bracing for a modest rebound (~48K).
Why this matters:
Unemployment (4.5% expected): Any uptick fuels recession fears
Wage growth (+0.4% expected): A strong print signals sticky inflation
👉 The risk:
A weak jobs number + strong wages = worst-case scenario for the Fed
(cooling growth, but inflation not easing)
🏦 Central Bank Focus: Powell Steps In
🇺🇸 Monday — Fed Chair Speech
Jerome Powell speaks for the first time since the Fed held rates steady last week.
What markets want to hear:
Is the Fed worried about the “Middle East energy premium”?
How will it balance weakening jobs vs rising inflation pressures?
👉 Expect this to set the tone for the entire week
🌍 Europe: Where the Energy Shock Hits First
Europe is the front line of the oil shock, and this week’s inflation data could confirm it.
Monday — 🇩🇪 Germany CPI (Prelim)
Tuesday — 🇪🇺 Eurozone CPI (Flash) (Forecast: 2.8% vs 1.9%)
👉 A sharp rise would signal:
Energy costs are feeding directly into inflation
The ECB may have less room to cut rates than expected
🏭 Global Growth Check
Tuesday / Wednesday — Manufacturing Pulse
🇨🇳 China NBS PMI
🇺🇸 ISM Manufacturing + ADP Jobs
With oil hovering around $115–$120, the question is simple:
👉 Is global industry stalling under higher energy costs?
China — as the world’s largest energy importer — is the key pressure point.
⚠️ Market Setup: Thin Liquidity Risk
Friday = Good Friday (markets closed)
Liquidity will drop sharply from Thursday afternoon
👉 If the jobs report surprises, expect:
Exaggerated moves
Volatility spikes
Thin markets amplifying reactions
🧠 Bottom Line
This is a high-stakes macro week where three forces collide:
🧊 Cooling labour market
🔥 Rising energy-driven inflation
🏦 Central banks caught in the middle
👉 If the data leans the wrong way, the “soft landing” narrative could quickly unravel
ICYMI
Here’s a catch-all roundup of notable news and developments from the past week.
Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East escalated dramatically, while U.S. markets faced volatility from policy shifts, a major Supreme Court ruling on tariffs, and mixed economic signals.
Severe weather and other global incidents added to the mix.
U.S.-Israel Strikes on Iran and Escalating Tensions: Joint U.S. and Israeli military operations targeted Iranian missile capabilities, military sites, and leadership, resulting in significant casualties (including reports of high-level figures killed). Iran retaliated with missile strikes across the region. Indirect nuclear talks continued in Geneva amid Trump’s threats of further action (including potential regime change or energy sector strikes), with a “10-day window” mentioned for negotiations. UN warnings highlighted risks of wider war.0
Supreme Court Strikes Down Trump’s Global Tariffs: In a 6-3 decision, the Court ruled that the president lacked emergency powers under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose broad tariffs. This led to immediate cessation of collections and prompted the administration to explore alternative legal avenues for new trade measures. Trump expressed disappointment and signaled potential workarounds.1
Market Volatility and Economic Data: U.S. indexes saw sharp moves, with the Dow dropping over 800 points (around 1.7%) in one session amid tariff uncertainty and AI-related concerns. Broader February rotation continued, with large-cap growth underperforming while other sectors showed resilience. The Beige Book noted slight-to-moderate economic growth in some districts but flat/declining activity in others, with moderate price increases. Other data releases (e.g., job openings, employment costs) provided mixed labor market signals.
Severe Weather and Domestic Incidents: A powerful blizzard hammered the Northeast, causing flight cancellations, travel chaos, and power issues. An armed man was fatally shot by Secret Service after breaching the perimeter at Mar-a-Lago. Protests and debates continued around immigration enforcement and federal agency matters.
Other Global Developments: Cartel violence in Mexico following a leader’s death; UN findings on genocide in Sudan; a major Louvre museum heist and resignation of its director; Pakistan-Afghanistan border clashes; and ongoing issues in Gaza, Ukraine, and elsewhere. Anti-government protests and sports highlights (e.g., U.S. men’s hockey gold) rounded out the week.
Why It Relates to the Market and Investors
This week’s events introduced notable policy and geopolitical risk premiums, influencing asset prices and sector rotations:
Tariff Ruling and Trade Policy: The SCOTUS decision removed a layer of broad tariffs, potentially easing short-term inflationary pressures and benefiting import-dependent sectors, retailers, and multinationals. However, anticipation of replacement measures (via new investigations or laws) kept uncertainty high, contributing to equity volatility and safe-haven flows. Exporters and trade-sensitive stocks (e.g., industrials, autos) faced swings; longer-term, clarity on U.S. trade posture could affect corporate margins and global supply chains.
Middle East Escalation: Strikes and retaliation risks drove energy price spikes (oil as a hedge against disruption) and boosted defense/aerospace stocks. Gold and other safe-havens likely saw bids amid fears of wider conflict or oil supply shocks. Heightened geopolitical risk generally pressures risk assets while supporting volatility products; investors monitored impacts on inflation (via energy) and Fed policy expectations.
Economic Signals and Fed Outlook: Beige Book and labor data painted a resilient-but-mixed picture, with modest growth and wage/price pressures. This reinforced a cautious Fed stance, supporting financials/value plays but weighing on growth/tech amid AI displacement fears. Market breadth (rotation away from mega-cap growth) highlighted opportunities in cyclicals or small-caps if policy stabilises.
Overall Investor Takeaway: Volatility remained elevated due to intertwined trade and geopolitical headlines, but underlying U.S. economic resilience provided some floor. Portfolios with hedges (energy, defense, commodities) or diversified exposure fared better. Focus shifts to negotiation outcomes, alternative tariff paths, earnings implications, and any Fed commentary—2026 growth outlooks could adjust based on escalation risks or resolved uncertainties.
Useful Links (Any Interesting Stories)
Democracy Now: Headlines February 23, 2026 – Coverage of SCOTUS tariff ruling and Iran talks.
NYT: Today’s Paper February 23, 2026 – Insights on Iran preparations and post-Olympics stories.
Reuters/CNBC: Stock Market Updates February 23 – Details on Dow drops and tariff reactions.
Buzzfeed: 13 World News Stories Americans Missed in February 2026 – Global under-the-radar developments.
Federal Reserve: Beige Book February 2026 – Regional economic conditions summary.
AP: Major Global News Moments of February in Photos – Visual roundup of key events.
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Disclaimer
Please remember this is not investment advice—I'm simply sharing my personal opinions and research. Always conduct your own due diligence before making any investment decisions.