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What’s in this issue;
📈 Markets & Macro — Tariffs blocked, inflation cools, rate-cut expectations rise, and global equities push higher.
🧠 Investor Takeaways — Why the soft-landing narrative is strengthening, policy support is returning, and risk appetite is broadening.
⚖️ Policy & Geopolitics — Supreme Court tariff ruling, Middle East tensions, and rising global policy uncertainty.
🤖 AI: From Hype to Selectivity — Why profits now matter more than promises.
🌍 Emerging Markets Weekly — China reopening momentum, India’s breakout, Brazil’s yield story, and Southeast Asia stability.
🎯 The Week Ahead — Nvidia earnings, global inflation reads, labour data, and key sentiment drivers.
📊 Earnings Radar — Nvidia, Salesforce, Dell, Alibaba, Home Depot, MercadoLibre & more.
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What Moved Markets This Week
Global equities pushed higher as investors digested softer economic signals, fresh inflation data, and a major U.S. Supreme Court ruling that blocked proposed trade tariffs.
The combination of cooling growth indicators, easing inflation pressures, and reduced trade uncertainty strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve remains on track to begin cutting rates later this year, lifting risk appetite across global markets.
Key market drivers this week:
Supreme Court tariff ruling boosted sentiment: A landmark ruling blocking proposed U.S. trade tariffs eased fears of renewed trade wars, lifting global equities and improving risk appetite.
Softer U.S. data reinforced rate-cut expectations: Signs of economic cooling alongside moderating inflation supported expectations that the Fed will shift toward easing later this year.
Fed minutes signalled growing policy flexibility: January meeting minutes showed officials increasingly focused on downside growth risks, reinforcing the dovish pivot narrative.
UK stocks hit fresh record highs: Strong domestic economic data combined with the tariff ruling pushed the FTSE 100 to new highs.
European equities tracked Wall Street higher: Reduced trade uncertainty and easing inflation concerns supported gains across major European indices.
Volatility remained subdued: Stable bond yields and declining volatility reinforced confidence in the soft-landing outlook.
What This Means for Investors
The soft-landing narrative is strengthening: Cooling growth without sharp deterioration supports continued equity upside.
Policy support is re-emerging: The Fed’s tone and falling tariff risk create a more supportive macro backdrop for risk assets.
Global risk appetite is broadening: Strength across U.S., UK, and European equities points to a healthier, more balanced rally.
Investor Playbook
Position for easing financial conditions: Maintain exposure to growth and quality cyclicals that benefit most from falling rates.
Rotate selectively, not aggressively: Look beyond mega-cap tech toward industrials, financials, and UK equities.
Stay hedged against policy surprises: Retain exposure to gold and defensives as insurance against inflation or geopolitical shocks.
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Things I’m Paying Attention To
Markets are flashing mixed signals. Strong data is colliding with stretched valuations, creating a fragile balance between optimism and caution.
AI: From Hype to Selectivity
The “everything AI rallies” phase is over. Investors now demand real earnings, not promises. Meta and Apple are outperforming, while laggards like Microsoft and Workday (-30% YTD) are being punished.
Bottom line: profitability matters more than hype.
Geopolitics = Volatility
Tariffs and Middle East tensions have capped market momentum. The S&P 500 is stuck below 7,000, while oil climbs toward $72. Falling Treasury yields signal quiet risk-hedging beneath the surface.
Fed Uncertainty
With Kevin Warsh set to take the helm, markets are reassessing rate-cut expectations. Growth is cooling (~1.5% GDP), inflation remains sticky, and traders want proof before pricing in aggressive easing.
Crowded Sentiment
Bullish positioning is stretched, historically a setup for pullbacks. With optimism high and cash low, even small shocks could trigger sharp corrections.
Bottom line: The market is telling investors to stay invested — but stay cautious. One foot on the gas, one hovering over the brake.
Emerging Markets Weekly
Emerging Markets (EM) delivered a split narrative this week a quiet start from China’s extended Lunar New Year holiday, followed by a surge of policy moves and trade optimism across Asia and Latin America.
China: Post-Holiday Momentum
As China exits its nine-day Spring Festival, early data shows strong travel and “silver economy” spending. Markets are now watching the PBOC (peoples bank of china) for a potential rate cut to support growth and fight deflation. Sustained consumer strength could mark a turning point for domestic demand.
India: The Standout Winner
India stole the spotlight after its interim trade deal with the US sparked $2.3bn in foreign inflows. With inflation low and growth strong, the RBI (reserve bank of India) is holding rates steady — creating a rare “Goldilocks” setup. The rupee is rebounding, reinforcing bullish momentum.
Brazil: Yield King on Pause
Brazil kept its Selic rate at 15%, the highest real yield globally. Solid growth supports the stance, but markets are eyeing a potential March pivot, which could trigger the next leg higher for equities.
Southeast Asia: Policy Stability
Indonesia and the Philippines held rates, prioritising currency stability, while Thailand’s return to growth eased pressure for immediate easing.
Bottom line: EM remains a relative bright spot. India’s momentum and potential Chinese stimulus are key drivers for another strong year.
Looking Forward: What We Anticipate Next Week
🔭 Looking Ahead: The Week in Focus
This week revolves around one dominant catalyst Nvidia’s Q4 earnings with macro data playing a supporting role. Consumer sentiment, inflation trends, and labour market signals will help shape expectations for rate cuts, risk appetite, and tech valuations.
⭐ Market-Moving Event
NVIDIA — Q4 Earnings (Wednesday)
Nvidia’s results have become the single most important data point for global equity markets. With AI enthusiasm cooling and valuations stretched, this report will determine whether the AI trade regains momentum or continues to unwind.
What matters most:
Data centre revenue growth
Forward guidance
Capex signals from hyperscalers
AI demand visibility into 2026
Expect elevated volatility across:
👉 Semiconductors
👉 AI infrastructure
👉 Mega-cap tech
🧭 Macro Pulse: What Could Shift Sentiment
Tuesday — Consumer Mood
Confidence remains near 12-year lows. Any further deterioration would reinforce fears of consumer slowdown, pressuring cyclical stocks and boosting rate-cut expectations.
Wednesday — Inflation Check (Australia)
A pullback from December’s holiday-distorted spike would ease pressure on the RBA, strengthening rate cut expectations and potentially lifting rate-sensitive equities.
Thursday — Labour Market Pulse
Claims remain near cycle lows. A sustained rise would quickly alter the Fed outlook, reinforcing expectations for earlier easing.
Friday — Inflation Signals (Asia + US)
A rebound toward target strengthens the case for further BoJ tightening, supporting JPY and Japanese yields.
A softer print would reinforce the view that producer inflation has peaked, supporting equities and bond markets.
📊 Earnings Radar: Key Reports This Week
Alongside Nvidia, several high-profile tech, energy, and consumer names report:
Salesforce
Dell Technologies
Alibaba
Home Depot
Intuit
Monster Beverage
Constellation Energy
MercadoLibre
Themes to watch:
👉 AI demand & cloud spending
👉 Enterprise tech budgets
👉 Consumer resilience
👉 Energy market outlook
ICYMI
1. U.S. Supreme Court Strikes Down Trump’s Emergency Tariffs, Prompting Tariff Hike to 15%
Story Link: CNN Coverage on Trump’s Tariff Response
Why it relates to markets and investors: The Supreme Court’s ruling invalidates broad tariffs imposed under emergency powers, potentially easing cost pressures on U.S. companies reliant on imports (e.g., manufacturing and retail sectors). However, Trump’s immediate escalation to 15% global tariffs could reignite trade wars, increasing inflation risks and volatility in export-heavy stocks like those in autos, tech hardware, and commodities.
Investors should monitor supply chain disruptions and currency fluctuations, as this could boost domestic producers while hurting multinationals. Long-term, it signals policy uncertainty under the administration, affecting portfolio diversification toward tariff-resilient assets.
2. Heightened U.S.-Iran Tensions with Potential Military Strikes
Story Link: Al Jazeera on Iran Protests and U.S. Response
Why it relates to markets and investors: Escalating rhetoric, including Trump’s consideration of limited strikes, has already steadied oil prices amid supply fears from the Middle East. Energy investors could see upside in oil majors (e.g., Exxon, Chevron) if disruptions occur, but broader markets face downside from risk-off sentiment—potentially spiking the VIX and pressuring equities.
Defence stocks might benefit from increased military spending, while global supply chains (e.g., shipping routes like the Strait of Hormuz) could drive commodity inflation. This geopolitical wildcard underscores the need for hedging strategies in volatile portfolios.
3. Strong U.S. Stock Market Start to 2026, Led by AI and Productivity Gains
Story Link: Yahoo Finance on Insider Growth Stock Picks
Why it relates to markets and investors: With the S&P 500 eclipsing 7,000 and indices like the Dow showing strong gains, optimism around AI-driven growth (e.g., chipmakers) and slowing inflation is fueling rallies. Insider buying in growth stocks signals confidence, but high valuations raise overbought concerns investors in tech heavy portfolios should watch for rotations to small-caps or equal weight indices.
Productivity data (up 4.9% in Q3 2025) counters wage inflation, supporting Fed rate cut expectations and bond yields, which could benefit fixed income strategies.
4. Shift in Market Dynamics: From Mega-Caps to Small-Caps and Equal-Weight
Story Link: Dan Niles on X Analyzing Market Shifts
Why it relates to markets and investors: Recent data shows capital flowing from the “Magnificent 7” (down 6.8% since late October 2025) to small-caps (Russell 2000 up 7.5%) and equal-weight S&P (up 7.4%), driven by Fed easing and anticipated rate cuts under new chair Warsh.
This diversification trend could reward value-oriented investors avoiding concentration risk in AI giants, especially with rising capex concerns at firms like Microsoft and Amazon. It’s a cue for rebalancing toward broader market exposure amid potential AI funding challenges.
5. China’s Economic Rebound: Sentiment Improves Amid Tech and Policy Shifts
Story Link: Freda Duan on X Sharing China Trip Insights
Why it relates to markets and investors: Rising consumer confidence, a 50% Shanghai index surge since October 2024 lows, and policy moves like cutting export rebates signal stabilisation and reduced deflation risks. Themes like consumer hardware, aerospace, and domestic chips offer multi-bagger potential for global investors, while real estate stabilisation could boost EM funds. U.S.-listed Chinese stocks or ETFs might rally, but trade tensions (e.g., tariffs) add volatility—key for those with Asia exposure seeking growth amid U.S. slowdown fears.
6. Indian Stocks Hit Best Week in Months on U.S.-India Trade Deal Optimism
Why it relates to markets and investors: Optimism around a potential India-U.S. trade deal has propelled Indian equities, benefiting sectors like IT, pharma, and manufacturing. As an alternative to China amid de-risking, this could attract foreign inflows into EM portfolios, enhancing diversification. Investors eyeing global growth should consider India-focused ETFs, especially if U.S. tariffs redirect supply chains southward.
7. Oil Steady Amid Geopolitical Risks; AI Capex Boosts Tech Giants
Story Link: Plus500 Market Insights on Oil and AI (From X post context)
Why it relates to markets and investors: Oil’s stability despite U.S.-Iran tensions supports energy sector stability, while massive AI spending at Nvidia, Meta, and Microsoft (e.g., hyperscaler capex up 58% YoY to $700B in 2026) drives chip and cloud stocks. This capex boom could inflate valuations but signals long-term AI growth investors in semis or tech should track funding sustainability, as circular deals raise bubble risks.
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