In partnership with
If you work in fintech or finance, you already have too many tabs open and not enough time.
Fintech Takes is the free newsletter senior leaders actually read. Each week, I break down the trends, deals, and regulatory moves shaping the industry — and explain why they matter — in plain English.
No filler, no PR spin, and no “insights” you already saw on LinkedIn eight times this week. Just clear analysis and the occasional bad joke to make it go down easier.
Get context you can actually use. Subscribe free and see what’s coming before everyone else.
What’s in this issue;
This week, markets reacted sharply to U.S. Fed leadership news and hotter-than-expected inflation, highlighting how policy uncertainty is now a central driver of risk.
Markets This Week:
• Fed Focus: Kevin Warsh confirmed as next Fed Chair; hawkish lean pushed U.S. equities lower and bond yields higher.
• Regional Divergence: Europe rallies on policy clarity; U.S. stocks retreat amid hotter-than-expected PPI.
• Inflation: Eurozone hits 2% target; U.S. inflation stays elevated due to tariffs and sticky housing costs.
• Emerging Markets: Strong start to 2026; India & China lead growth, EM FX supported by central bank actions, watch geopolitical risks.
• Commodities: Gold hits $5,000/oz; oil steady on OPEC+ pause; silver and precious metals remain in focus.
Investor Takeaways:
• Volatility is the feature for 2026: patience, liquidity, and selective positioning matter.
• Balance defensives, quality cyclicals, EM, and safe-haven assets.
• Watch global central bank guidance, U.S. inflation, and mega-cap earnings for next week’s market direction.
House Keeping
Feel free to share our newsletter with friends: Click here to spread the word.
We'd love to hear from you! Send your feedback to [email protected].
Help Us Reach 1,000 Subscribers!
Once we hit this milestone, I’ll start exclusive interviews with top finance executives—bringing you insider insights and in-depth scoops you won’t find anywhere else.
Forward to friends, colleagues & family and help us reach our goal of providing game-changing conversations!
What Moved Markets This Week
Markets were driven primarily by U.S. monetary policy developments, as President Trump confirmed his nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair. The announcement, combined with hotter-than-expected U.S. producer inflation data, triggered a divergence between regions and increased short-term uncertainty around the future path of interest rates.
Key market drivers this week:
Fed Chair nomination reshaped rate expectations: Trump’s choice of Kevin Warsh — viewed as more hawkish — raised questions about the long-term direction of U.S. monetary policy, pressuring U.S. equities.
European markets rallied on policy clarity: European stocks, including the FTSE 100, moved higher as investors welcomed certainty around future Fed leadership and interpreted the pick as supportive of market stability.
U.S. stocks slipped on inflation concerns: Wall Street closed lower after PPI came in hotter than expected, reinforcing concerns that inflation pressures may slow the pace of future rate cuts.
Bond market reaction mattered: Firmer inflation data pushed yields higher intraday, weighing on rate-sensitive sectors and growth stocks.
Volatility ticked higher: Policy uncertainty around the Fed transition and inflation data reintroduced short-term market caution.
What This Means for Investors
Policy uncertainty is back in focus: The Fed chair nomination shifts attention from when rates are cut to how aggressively they may be cut under new leadership.
Inflation data regains influence: Hotter PPI reminds markets that inflation risks haven’t disappeared, increasing sensitivity to upcoming CPI and wage data.
Regional divergence may persist: Europe’s relative strength versus the U.S. reflects differing exposure to Fed policy risk and valuation pressures.
Investor Playbook
Dial back rate-sensitive exposure: Be cautious with highly valued growth stocks until inflation data confirms easing price pressures.
Favour balance over conviction: A mix of defensives and quality cyclicals can help navigate policy transition risk.
Watch yields, not headlines: Sustained moves in bond yields will be the clearest signal for equity direction during the Fed leadership handover.
Upgrade now for exclusive daily summaries straight to your inbox.
Inflation
Today marks the first Sunday of the month, a key period for assessing macro trends as the final 2025 data settles and 2026 projections begin to take shape.
The story for early 2026 is one of divergence: the Eurozone has successfully cooled inflation to its 2% target, while the U.S. is battling a "lingering fever" due to trade policy shifts and resilient consumer demand.
🌎 Regional Macro Analysis
The Eurozone: Mission Accomplished?
Europe has largely achieved what the European Central Bank (ECB) set out to do. As of this morning, inflation is hovering almost exactly at the 2.0% target.
Methodology Shift: On February 4 (this Wednesday), Eurostat will implement major methodological changes to the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), which may cause minor "statistical noise" in upcoming reports.
The Energy Tailpipe: Falling energy prices (-1.9% year-on-year) are the primary reason the headline number is so low, even while service inflation remains a bit "sticky" at 3.4%.
The United States: The Tariff "Bump"
While the U.S. economy remains the "engine of growth," it is also the region where inflation is proving hardest to kill.
The 2026 Outlook: Analysts expect a "low-grade fever" to persist through the first half of 2026. The main culprit is front-loading and tariff pass-throughs, which are expected to keep the CPI above the Fed's 2% target for most of the year.
Shelter Lag: Housing costs (35% of the CPI weight) are finally beginning to cool, but the process is slow, acting as a floor that prevents inflation from dropping as fast as it has in Europe.
The "Big Picture" Takeaway
Central banks are walking a tightrope. The ECB is likely to hold rates steady this week (Feb 5) to ensure inflation doesn't bounce back, while the U.S. Federal Reserve is watching for signs that tariff-related price hikes might require keeping interest rates "higher for longer."
Would you like me to track these numbers specifically for your investment portfolio, or perhaps compare these rates to specific emerging markets like India or China?
Hot Take 🔥 | Overall Thoughts 💭
Markets right now feel less like a pricing mechanism and more like a live geopolitical referendum. Safe havens are screaming “something’s off,” risk assets are pretending everything’s fine, and central banks are stuck reacting to headlines rather than data.
The disconnect between record-high gold, fragile equities, and policy paralysis tells me volatility isn’t a bug — it’s the feature for 2026. This isn’t the time for blind dip-buying or macro bravado; it’s a market that rewards patience, liquidity, and the humility to admit that politics, not fundamentals, is setting the tempo.
Emerging Markets Snapshot
Emerging markets (EM) have kicked off 2026 strong, with stocks, bonds, and currencies benefiting from a four-year low U.S. dollar. Asia-Pacific drives growth, with China and India contributing over 40% of global real GDP growth. Risks remain from geopolitical tensions and potential U.S. policy shifts.
This Week’s Key Moves
India: A 20-year tax holiday for foreign companies using local data centers and tariff cuts aim to boost tech and manufacturing investment.
Oil: OPEC+ maintains its March production pause, supporting prices for oil-exporting EM like Saudi Arabia, Nigeria, and Brazil.
Geopolitics: Iran tensions and possible U.S. actions could spike oil prices and impact EM energy markets.
Central Banks: Actions in Brazil, Chile, and South Africa continue to support EM FX appreciation.
Watch Points for Investors
U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls: Strong data could strengthen the dollar and pressure EM currencies; weak data may boost inflows.
Global Central Banks: ECB, BOE, and RBA policy signals could indirectly benefit EM assets.
Trade & Geopolitics: Any updates on Iran or U.S. trade could trigger risk-off moves.
Opportunities: Focus on manufacturing hubs (Mexico, Vietnam, India, Brazil) or ETFs like $EEM and $INDA.
Trends: EM tech investment and fiscal support remain growth drivers, but watch U.S. inflation and geopolitical risks.
Looking Forward: What We Anticipate Next Week
Key Events Next Week
Markets have another full week ahead, with central bank decisions, inflation data, and a fresh wave of corporate earnings taking center stage. Investors will be weighing the outlook for interest rates globally, while keeping an eye on major companies reporting results that could shape sentiment across technology, consumer, and energy sectors.
Tuesday brings two notable events. The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to raise its policy rate to 3.85% from 3.6%, as inflation remains persistent. A hawkish RBA could strengthen the Australian dollar, weigh on rate-sensitive equities, and reinforce the “higher for longer” interest rate narrative. In Europe, France releases its preliminary inflation reading, forecast at 0.8% year-on-year, a figure closely watched as an early indicator for eurozone price pressures. Continued weakness would increase expectations for ECB easing and generally support European equities.
Wednesday focuses on the broader eurozone, with the flash estimate of inflation expected to rise to 2.0% from 1.9%. Inflation near the ECB’s target could give the central bank more flexibility to cut rates in the future, supporting risk assets and offering a favorable backdrop for equities.
Thursday sees the Bank of England deliver its interest rate decision. Rates are expected to remain on hold at 3.75%, but investors will be listening closely for any hints on the timing of potential cuts. A cautious tone could weigh on UK shares and lift government bond yields.
Friday concludes the week with the European Central Bank’s interest rate decision and press conference. While no change is expected at 2.15%, the messaging will be critical. Strong confidence in inflation could reinforce expectations for future rate cuts and support risk appetite across European markets.
Earnings season continues in full swing. Notable companies reporting this week include Palantir Technologies, Disney, AMD, Alphabet, Toyota, Uber, Amazon, and Shell. Results and forward guidance from these names will provide insight into technology spending, consumer trends, and energy market conditions, shaping broader market sentiment as the quarter progresses.
What to Watch Most Closely
First, global central banks are in focus. RBA, BoE, and ECB decisions — along with the eurozone and French inflation readings — will provide fresh guidance on the trajectory of interest rates and inflation expectations.
Second, mega-cap earnings will influence broader sentiment. Alphabet, Amazon, Disney, AMD, and Palantir are all key bellwethers for tech and consumer markets, with their results likely to set the tone for equity markets next week.
Third, risk appetite will hinge on messaging rather than outright moves. Investors will monitor commentary from central banks for hints on “higher for longer” versus potential easing, while earnings updates will reveal whether underlying demand and margins remain resilient in a tighter financial environment.
ICYMI
The dominant stories centered on U.S. domestic tensions from immigration enforcement, market volatility tied to policy threats, economic data releases, and global geopolitical shifts. Markets experienced choppy trading amid tariff rhetoric and Fed signals.
Ongoing Fallout from Minneapolis ICE Shooting: Protests continued in Minnesota after federal agents fatally shot 37-year-old Alex Pretti (an ICU nurse and U.S. citizen) during an immigration operation. Video evidence showed contradictions with official accounts (he was restrained and holding a phone, not armed). Bipartisan calls grew for investigations, with Republicans struggling to respond. Top Border Patrol official Gregory Bovino was removed from oversight, and border czar Tom Homan dispatched to manage operations. Related incidents (including another recent ICE fatality) fueled outrage, general strikes, and demands to “ICE Out.”
Trump Administration Tariff Threats and Global Repercussions: Renewed warnings targeted European allies (including over Greenland purchase demands), leading to 10% tariffs starting February 1 on imports from several NATO countries, escalating to 25% by June. This triggered wide selloffs early in the week, with concerns over renewed trade wars.
Market Volatility and Economic Data: Stocks saw sharp moves—Dow slid ~870 points in one session (worst since October), S&P 500 down ~2%, Nasdaq similar—on tariff fears and Fed-related uncertainty. Gold surged past $5,000/oz (record high) before retreating amid safe-haven flows. U.S. indices ended January modestly positive overall (S&P +1.2-1.4%, Dow +1.6-1.7%). Key releases included durable goods (stronger than expected), consumer confidence improvements, and Fed holding rates at 3.50-3.75% with hawkish leanings (Powell successor speculation). Dollar weakened, yen rallied.
Winter Storm and Weather Impacts: A massive Arctic blast caused deaths, power outages for millions, flight chaos, and natural gas price surges (>60% in spots) across the U.S. Midwest/Northeast.
Other Global/Policy Notes: U.S. withdrawal from Paris Agreement formalized; ongoing U.S.-Russia-Ukraine talks (next round Feb 4 in UAE); Israel recovered last Gaza hostage remains amid ceasefire progress; UN warnings on Myanmar/Syria crises; European offshore wind expansion agreement.
Why It Relates to the Market and Investors
This week’s developments carried significant implications for volatility, sectors, and broader sentiment:
Immigration Enforcement Tensions → Political polarization risks DHS funding blocks or shutdown threats, impacting labor markets (construction, agriculture, services reliant on immigrants), consumer confidence, and fiscal policy uncertainty. Bipartisan backlash could slow aggressive enforcement but heighten short-term disruptions.
Tariff Threats → Major driver of risk-off moves: Early-week drops reflected fears of trade wars hurting exporters, multinationals, and inflation. Safe-haven bids boosted gold/yen; dollar weakness pressured U.S. assets. Longer-term, tariffs could reignite inflation, delay Fed cuts, and slow growth—especially if escalating to allies.
Fed Policy and Economic Data → Rate hold with cautious outlook (higher-for-longer vibes from nominee speculation) supported value/financials but pressured growth/tech stocks. Strong durable goods/consumer data reinforced resilient growth narrative, aiding January gains despite pullbacks. Productivity surges and fiscal stimulus expectations support 2.5%+ U.S. GDP outlook.
Commodity/Weather Swings → Gold’s record run (up massively YTD) highlighted geopolitical/inflation hedges; natural gas spikes benefited energy/utilities but raised input costs. Weather events added transitory supply-chain drags (travel, retail) but often fade quickly.
Overall Investor Takeaway → Markets showed resilience (positive January closes despite Friday weakness), with focus on policy clarity (tariffs, Fed path, fiscal stimulus). Volatility shifted to FX/commodities over equities. 2026 projections remain upbeat (global growth ~3.3%, U.S. above-trend) unless geopolitical escalations intensify—watch earnings season and trade developments closely.
Useful Links (Any Interesting Stories)
CNBC: Dow Slides 870 Points on Trump Tariff Threat – Live coverage of market reaction to Greenland/Europe tariffs.
Reuters: Stocks Fall on Greenland Tariff Concerns – Details on broad selloff and index drops.
Democracy Now: Protests Continue After Minneapolis Shooting – Updates on ICE fallout and demonstrations.
NYT: Timeline of Alex Pretti Shooting – Video analysis contradicting official narrative.
Bloomberg: Stock Volatility vs. Commodity/FX Swings – Insight on gold surge and dollar moves.
Trading Economics: U.S. Stock Market Update – Closing figures and sector performance.
Join the conversation
We're inviting you to be part of our growing investment group! Join us via the link below for discussions, insights, and more
Access Exclusive Investment Theses
If you’re interested in accessing my personal investment theses on 20+ promising stocks, let me know. I continuously update and share insights as I identify new opportunities.
Disclaimer
Please remember this is not investment advice—I'm simply sharing my personal opinions and research. Always conduct your own due diligence before making any investment decisions.