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What’s in this issue;
Markets tread carefully as US inflation cools, giving equities a cautious lift, while Europe and the UK remain mixed. Key stories this week: Netflix’s $83B mega-deal, Salesforce earnings, China’s industrial slowdown, emerging market opportunities, Google’s AI strategy, Costco’s tariff battle, and a Hot Take on AR glasses replacing smartphones. Your complete guide to what’s moving markets right now.
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Weekly Movement - Heatmaps
Markets were cautiously optimistic heading into key US inflation data and next week’s Federal Reserve meeting. In the US, the S&P 500 edged closer to a record high after PCE inflation figures aligned with expectations, boosting hopes that price pressures are cooling without damaging growth.
European markets ended the week mixed as investors held back from big moves ahead of the Fed’s decision. Meanwhile in the UK, the FTSE saw slight gains, supported by defensive names as traders waited for the US inflation print and further policy signals.
What This Means for Investors
Cooling US inflation strengthens the soft-landing narrative, which supports equities — especially quality large caps — but keeps attention firmly on next week’s Fed meeting for confirmation.
Mixed European trading signals market hesitation, suggesting investors may want to avoid big directional bets until policymakers give clearer rate guidance.
The FTSE’s defensive-led uptick shows continued preference for stability, meaning income stocks, staples, and energy names may remain relatively resilient in the near term.
Volatility may pick up around the Fed decision, so maintaining diversification and avoiding overexposure to high-beta sectors could help manage short-term risk.
What is Moving the Markets This Week
Media Mega-Deal
A major corporate event that moved the media sector was the announced deal for Netflix to acquire a significant portion of Warner Bros. Discovery (including its HBO Max streaming service) for nearly $83 billion. This sent WBD shares higher while causing Netflix stock to dip slightly.
Corporate Earnings
Post-earnings stock movements for companies like Salesforce (CRM) and Snowflake (SNOW) also factored into the market's daily swings.
China’s Industrial Profits Suffer Sharp October Setback Amid Trade and Demand Headwinds
China’s industrial profits fell 5.5% year-on-year in October, the steepest decline in five months, reversing the strong gains seen in August and September and signaling renewed pressure on the country’s manufacturing sector.
The drop reflects weak domestic demand, lingering global trade uncertainty, and the impact of Beijing’s efforts to curb excess capacity, even as overall profits for the first ten months of 2025 still showed a modest 1.9% increase from a year earlier.
Economists note that the setback, combined with softer industrial output and slowing retail growth, underscores a loss of economic momentum and raises questions over how far policymakers will go with additional stimulus as China targets growth of around 5%.
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Top Economic News This Week
UK Autumn Budget Focuses on Tax Hikes and Debt Concerns
The UK Chancellor delivered the Autumn Budget, which was the central focus of economic policy in Europe this week, putting significant pressure on the country's economic outlook.
Context: The Budget was delivered against a backdrop of worryingly high government borrowing and a significant downgrade to the official trend productivity growth forecast. To address the resulting public finance hole, the government was forced to confirm significant tax increases, particularly for larger businesses, in an effort to reassure bond investors and address mounting debt concerns without completely derailing an already sluggish economic growth forecast.
Mixed US Data Keeps Fed Rate Cut Plans Highly Uncertain
Conflicting economic data in the US has created deep divisions in the market regarding the Federal Reserve's next move on interest rates, particularly a potential December cut.
Context: The delayed US employment report was mixed, showing 119,000 new jobs in September (above expectations) but with the unemployment rate ticking up to 4.4%—its highest since late 2021. With October inflation data missing due to the government shutdown, investors are relying on these mixed indicators, making the probability of a third 2025 rate cut in December highly volatile and subject to any public statements by Fed officials.
Link for Context: Global Weekly Economic Update on US Labor Market and Fed Uncertainty - Deloitte Insights
Track Inflation Across Europe & US
🌍 Global Inflation Watch: A Core Problem Persists
Headline inflation has retreated, but the underlying price picture remains divergent: US Core Inflation (3%) is significantly higher and stickier than the Euro Area's Core HICP (2.4%).
The difference boils down to housing. US Core CPI assigns a large, lagging weight to shelter costs, ensuring inflation remains elevated even as other prices cool.
The Euro Area’s core measure excludes owner-occupied housing, allowing it to reflect disinflation more readily.
Policy Outlook:
The European Central Bank (ECB) is widely expected to keep rates on hold, satisfied that their core measure is near the 2% target.
The US Federal Reserve (Fed) faces a harder line of sight to its goal, suggesting they must maintain a more cautious, restrictive stance due to the persistent pressure from housing-driven services inflation.
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Things I’m Paying Attention To
Google’s Slow and Steady
Google's strategy, often characterised as slow and steady, is proving to be a winning approach in the intense AI race, demonstrating that a measured, deliberate pace focused on fundamental research and integration can ultimately outmanoeuvre rivals prioritising speed; this patient momentum allows the company to build a strong, scalable, and ethically-sound AI ecosystem that compounds over time, steadily embedding its advanced capabilities like Gemini and DeepMind research across its core products to secure long-term market dominance.
Costco Takes on the U.S. Government
Costco is suing the U.S. government over tariffs imposed under emergency powers, arguing the President overstepped his authority. The retailer wants to secure refunds before deadlines hit, while also challenging what it sees as executive overreach.
Why it matters:
✅ Could save Costco (and shoppers) billions if tariffs are overturned.
✅ Sets a legal precedent limiting presidential tariff powers.
⚠️ Risks backlash, legal costs, and market uncertainty if the case drags on.
Stay tuned: The Supreme Court’s ruling could reshape how the U.S. handles tariffs and executive authority.
Hot Take 🔥 (Opinion Piece)
Glasses replacing phones — is it possible?
The idea isn’t as far-fetched as it sounds. With AR (augmented reality) and VR (virtual reality) tech advancing rapidly, companies are betting on glasses becoming the next personal device. Imagine notifications, maps, calls, and even social media updates projected directly in your line of sight — all without digging into your pocket.
But there are hurdles. Comfort, battery life, and aesthetics remain major barriers. Unlike smartphones, which we’re used to pulling out and fiddling with, glasses are visible to everyone. Do we want to walk around with a mini screen on our face 24/7? There’s also the question of privacy: constant cameras and sensors could make people uneasy.
Still, the convenience is hard to ignore. Hands-free navigation, instant translation, and immersive apps could transform daily life, especially for professionals, gamers, or people on the go. If tech giants crack the design and social acceptability, glasses might not just complement phones — they could replace them entirely.
The real question isn’t whether it’s possible, but whether we’re ready to live our lives through our lenses. The future might be in front of our eyes… literally.
Emerging Markets
⚡ EM FOCUS: THE GOLDILOCKS WINDOW OPENS
Emerging Markets (EM) are entering a high-potential phase driven by macro tailwinds and strategic growth.
Here are the three critical takeaways you need to know:
1. Macro Shift: Dollar Weakness is EM Fuel
The peak in US interest rate risk is fading. This is the Goldilocks setup:
Softer USD: A weakening U.S. Dollar is a historic catalyst, easing external debt burdens and encouraging capital inflows back into EM assets.
Rate Cuts: Disinflation is giving local central banks (Brazil, India) room to cut rates, providing a crucial boost to domestic economic growth.
2. Country Playbook: Where to Invest Now
We are seeing a divergence of growth stories. Focus on these strategic bets:
🇮🇳 India: The undisputed long-term growth story. Target Industrials and Infrastructure to capitalise on massive government CapEx and demographic momentum.
🇨🇳 China: Be highly selective. Avoid the property sector and focus on global-leading Tech (AI, EVs) and firms benefiting from targeted policy stimulus.
🇧🇷 Brazil: Attractive fixed income. High real interest rates make Local Currency Bonds a compelling trade for income-seeking investors.
🇬🇷 Greece: The comeback is real. Look at Financials and Utilities as the country benefits from structural reform and re-rating.
3. Key Investment Themes
Local Debt: Maintain exposure to Local Currency EM Debt—it offers superior real yield compared to most developed market fixed income.
EM Small Caps: Expect a broadening of the rally. Small and mid-cap firms in Industrials and Manufacturing are set to benefit from global supply chain realignment.
Infrastructure: Invest in resilient, income-generating assets like Digital Infrastructure and Power Utilities—a non-negotiable for long-term development.
⚠️ Risk Watch
The main threats remain Geopolitical Fragmentation (Tariffs) and the high Debt Vulnerability of selected frontier markets. Ensure portfolios are diversified away from overly exposed sovereigns.
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Looking Forward: What We Anticipate Next Week
Tuesday:
🇺🇸 US JOLTs Job Openings – Forecast 7.2M vs Prev 7.23M → Cooler labor market could support Fed rate cuts.
🇪🇺 EU Inflation Rate YoY (Flash) – 2.1% → Steady inflation keeps ECB on hold.
Wednesday:
🇦🇺 AU GDP Growth YoY – Forecast 2.2% vs Prev 1.8% → Stronger growth eases recession fears but may keep rates higher.
🇺🇸 US ADP Employment Report – Forecast -15k vs Prev 42k → Weak private payrolls could increase Fed rate cut expectations.
Thursday:
🇺🇸 US Trade Balance – Forecast -57B vs Prev -59.6B → Narrowing deficit supports GDP growth.
Earnings Spotlight:
Big week for cloud software & discount retailers:
Salesforce, CrowdStrike, Snowflake, Marvell Tech, Kroger, MongoDB, Dollar General, Dollar Tree.
ICYMI
Gold and Commodities Outperformance: Precious Metals were a standout asset class in 2025. Gold and especially Silver saw massive returns (Gold up over 64\%) driven by persistent geopolitical uncertainty, strong central bank buying, and expectations of a weaker US Dollar as rates fall (Source: Bloomberg Professional Services, VT Markets).
Investor Impact: Commodities, led by Precious Metals, provided excellent diversification and inflation hedging benefits. This trend reflects increasing global concern over financial stability and the US dollar's dominance.
UK Market & Corporate Action: The FTSE 100 ended the week slightly lower, dragged down by corporate news. Smiths Group fell after agreeing to sell its security screening arm for £2 billion. Separately, the FCA confirmed the resumption of handling motor finance complaints in May 2026, creating clarity for lenders (Source: Share Talk).
Investor Impact: For UK investors, corporate restructuring (M&A/sales) is a key event to assess the future value of the remaining core business. The renewed focus on the lending sector by the FCA brings regulatory risk back into play.
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Disclaimer
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