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What’s in this issue;
This week, global markets delivered a mixed performance as investors weighed solid corporate earnings against fresh inflation data and ongoing trade uncertainties. U.S. equities posted modest gains, supported by strong results from tech and consumer firms, while Europe and the UK struggled amid muted sentiment and slowing property markets.
Key stories include Tesla’s Robotaxi milestone, Nvidia’s AI chip developments, and China’s $500B stimulus package boosting commodities. With central banks, rate cuts, and emerging market momentum all in play, this week’s briefing gives you the insights to navigate volatility and spot opportunity before the crowd.
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Wall Street Isn’t Warning You, But This Chart Might
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Weekly Movement - Heatmaps
Global markets delivered a mixed performance this week as investors balanced upbeat corporate earnings with fresh inflation signals and subdued trading volumes.
In London, the FTSE 100 drifted lower as weak Nationwide housing data pointed to lingering strain in the property market and traders stayed cautious ahead of next week’s key economic releases.
Across Europe, stocks also finished in the red amid muted sentiment, with inflation figures remaining in sharp focus as policymakers assess how quickly price pressures are easing across the bloc.
Meanwhile, in the US, markets managed to edge higher after a volatile session, supported by stronger-than-expected corporate results in sectors such as tech and consumer goods, which helped offset uncertainty around the Federal Reserve’s next policy move.
📈 What This Means for Investors
Earnings strength offers support: Solid company results, especially from large US firms, suggest corporate fundamentals remain resilient despite macro uncertainty.
Inflation remains the swing factor: Investors should watch upcoming inflation prints closely, as any surprises could shift expectations for central bank rate cuts.
Cautious sentiment in the UK and Europe: Softer housing and inflation data hint at slowing momentum, which could weigh on growth-sensitive sectors like real estate and retail.
Selectivity is key: Focusing on quality companies with consistent earnings and pricing power remains a sound approach in choppy, data-driven markets.
What’s Moving the Markets This Week
Winning streak: U.S. equities capped off a third straight week of gains and logged a six-month positive run in October, reflecting strong market momentum and confidence in the recovery.
Fed cuts rates — but tempers expectations: The Federal Reserve delivered a widely expected 25 bps rate cut and ended its balance sheet winddown, though Chair Jerome Powell unsettled markets by suggesting December’s cut is “far from” guaranteed.
Big Tech earnings drive mixed reactions: Amazon and Alphabet led gains with blockbuster results, while Apple, Meta, and Microsoft slipped after underwhelming updates, underscoring a widening gap among the “Magnificent Seven.”
Trade optimism lifts sentiment: A U.S.–China truce on rare earths and critical minerals helped ease geopolitical tensions, reinforcing optimism in global supply chains.
Indices post broad weekly gains: The S&P 500 rose +0.7%, the Dow added +0.8%, and the Nasdaq surged +2.2%, led by strength in tech and consumer discretionary names.
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Top Economic News This Week
In the US, Federal Reserve rate cuts have sparked debate, with some Fed officials opposing the cuts citing high inflation and a strong labor market. Meanwhile, concerns about the US budget deficit and tariff costs mounting to $1.2 trillion persist.
India faces a 37.5% drop in exports triggered by Trump-era tariffs, raising alarm across key sectors. However, India is optimistic about trade deals and fiscal targets, with GST revenues beating estimates despite tax cuts. Major infrastructure projects like the Mumbai Coastal Road are set to advance.
Corporate milestones like Nvidia reaching a $5 trillion valuation highlight the ongoing AI and tech sector boom.
Track Inflation Across Europe & US
The UK economy shows mixed signals with the Office for Budget Responsibility delivering a stark verdict on public finances. Inflation pressures continue with rising bills and weak tax growth forecasts, yet growth surpasses some expectations. Planning for pension megafunds worth billions is underway.
Globally, the Eurozone inflation is projected to stay near the ECB’s 2% target, with gradual growth resuming. China aims for an annual GDP growth rate of 4.17% over the next decade as part of its medium-level development goals.
Things I’m Paying Attention To
💨 The Counterintuitive Economics of Smoking
How Cigarette Manufacturers Profit From Quitters
Despite a sharp drop in smoking rates, tobacco giants are posting record profits — an unexpected twist in public health economics.
🔍 The Paradox
Over the past decade, the number of American adult smokers has fallen by 20 million, and cigarette sales are down over one-third. Yet, industry operating margins have climbed from 50% to 60%.
💰 Why Fewer Smokers = Bigger Profits
The smokers who remain are more price-inelastic — meaning they’re less likely to quit even as prices rise.
Tobacco companies exploit this by raising prices faster than inflation — for instance, Marlboro packs jumped 7% in a year when inflation was just 3%.
This pricing power more than offsets the decline in volume.
📈 Financial Fallout
U.S. cigarette and cigar manufacturers are on track to earn $22 billion in operating profit this year.
Tobacco stocks have even outperformed major tech indices, surprising many investors.
🧩 The Bigger Picture
As the customer base shrinks, it becomes more loyal and less sensitive to price, allowing firms to thrive despite falling consumption.
This shows how an industry can remain profitable — even as society successfully cuts its user base — by maximising revenue from its most committed consumers.
🧠 Takeaway
The result is a counterintuitive dynamic: fewer smokers, higher profits.
Public health wins don’t always translate into corporate losses — at least, not in the short term.
🔗 Read the full story:
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Emerging Markets
Taiwan and India, have shown robust equity performance this year, soaring 30% and 27% respectively, outpacing U.S. markets by over 5%. This reflects strong export growth (e.g., substantial merchandise export increases in Taiwan and Korea) and resilience in their economies.
Emerging markets broadly are benefiting from capital inflows supported by easing monetary policy in developed markets like the U.S. However, some major oil-producing EMs like Russia and Saudi Arabia are facing fiscal tightening due to falling oil revenues and budget pressures, pointing to uneven economic conditions within the EM universe.
The global economic influence of emerging markets continues to grow, with G20 EMs such as India, Brazil, Russia, and Mexico playing significant roles in regional and global economic output and trade. However, risks remain from productivity declines or shocks in these countries that could have larger global spillover effects compared to two decades ago.
Recent news also signals geopolitical and trade developments impacting EMs, such as South Korea-China discussions on supply chain cooperation and adjustments in oil sourcing by countries like Turkey due to sanctions on Russia, which underline ongoing adjustments in global trade patterns affecting emerging economies.
In sum, emerging markets in late 2025 face a combination of promising growth prospects driven by market rebounds and monetary easing, especially in Asia, alongside fiscal and geopolitical challenges. Investors and policymakers are closely watching conditions in China, key commodity exporters, and trade dynamics as critical factors shaping the outlook.
Looking Forward: What We Anticipate Next Week
Wall Street heads into a busy week of earnings and market catalysts, with hundreds of companies reporting results and investors watching closely for cues from trade developments and Federal Reserve commentary.
At the same time, the U.S. government shutdown will hit a historic milestone on Thursday, officially becoming the longest in history if no resolution occurs — a backdrop that could add caution to risk sentiment.
💼 Earnings Highlights
Several major companies are reporting this week, spanning tech, healthcare, consumer, and energy sectors. Key names include:
🗓 Monday, Nov 3 — Palantir (PLTR), Realty Income (O), ON Semiconductor (ON), Clorox (CLX)
🗓 Tuesday, Nov 4 — AMD (AMD), Shopify (SHOP), Uber (UBER), Amgen (AMGN), Pfizer (PFE)
🗓 Wednesday, Nov 5 — McDonald’s (MCD), AppLovin (APP), Qualcomm (QCOM), Arm (ARM), DoorDash (DASH), Fortinet (FTNT)
🗓 Thursday, Nov 6 — AstraZeneca (AZN), ConocoPhillips (COP), Airbnb (ABNB), Take-Two (TTWO), Block (XYZ)
🗓 Friday, Nov 7 — Constellation Energy (CEG), KKR & Co. (KKR), Enbridge (ENB), Duke Energy (DUK)
💡 Spotlight:
Tech & innovation: Palantir, AMD, Shopify, AppLovin, Qualcomm, and Arm give insight into software, semiconductors, and cloud trends.
Consumer & healthcare: McDonald’s, Airbnb, Pfizer, and AstraZeneca reflect global demand and spending patterns.
Energy & finance: ConocoPhillips, Constellation Energy, KKR, and Duke Energy provide visibility on commodities and capital markets.
🌍 Key Economic & Policy Events
Tuesday
🇦🇺 RBA Interest Rate Decision ⏸️ Forecast: 3.6% | Previous: 3.6%
➡️ No change is expected, but commentary on inflation and housing could move the AUD and short-term yields.
Thursday
🇦🇺 Balance of Trade ⬆️ Forecast: $6.2B | Previous: $1.825B
➡️ A larger surplus supports the Australian dollar and commodity-linked sectors.
🇬🇧 BoE Interest Rate Decision ⏸️ Forecast: 4% | Previous: 4%
➡️ The tone and vote split will guide expectations for potential future cuts, moving GBP and gilt yields.
Friday
🇨🇳 Balance of Trade ⬆️ Forecast: $97B | Previous: $90.45B
➡️ A wider surplus signals stronger exports and commodity demand, impacting EM markets and metals.
🇨🇦 Unemployment Rate ⬇️ Forecast: 7.1% | Previous: 7.2%
➡️ A modest drop strengthens the labor market, potentially reducing expectations for BoC rate cuts.
🧭 Week Ahead: Key Stocks to Watch
Berkshire Hathaway
Palantir
AMD
Shopify
McDonald’s
AppLovin
💬 Investor takeaway: Earnings season accelerates, central banks remain in focus, and historic government shutdown news adds a layer of macro uncertainty — making this a week where stock selection and policy signals matter more than ever.
ICYMI
Tesla’s Robotaxi Rollout Hits Milestone: Elon Musk unveiled the first 1,000 unsupervised robotaxis in Austin and LA, boosting TSLA shares +8% intraday. Regulatory green lights from NHTSA have eased concerns, but analysts warn of scaling risks with supply chain bottlenecks in lidar components.
China’s Stimulus Package Lifts Commodities: Beijing announced a $500B infrastructure push, sending copper futures +5% and oil (WTI) toward $85/bbl. This has ripple effects for EV battery makers like CATL and miners such as Rio Tinto (RIO +3.2%).
What Else is Happening?
AI Chip Wars Escalate: Nvidia’s new Blackwell B200 GPUs faced delays due to TSMC fab shortages, allowing AMD to snag a $2B deal with Meta for MI300X chips. Broader implications: Expect volatility in semis (SMH ETF -2% this week) as hyperscalers diversify away from NVDA dominance.
Crypto Rebound on ETF Inflows: Bitcoin surged past $68K after BlackRock’s IBIT ETF saw $1.2B in net inflows, the highest since July. Ethereum ETFs followed suit with $450M, but SEC whispers of stricter stablecoin rules could cap the rally.
EU Green Deal Overhaul: The European Commission proposed subsidies for nuclear alongside renewables, drawing fire from greens but cheers from utilities like EDF (+4%). This could accelerate fusion investments, with Commonwealth Fusion Systems raising $2B in fresh VC.
M&A Buzz in Biotech: Pfizer inked a $15B deal for Seagen’s ADC tech, signaling a thaw in Big Pharma consolidation. Watch for ripple buys in oncology plays like Gilead (GILD eyeing $10B war chest).
Useful Links: Interesting Stories Relevant to Investors
Bloomberg: “Why Powell’s Hawkish Pivot Could Spark a Soft Landing” (Deep dive on Fed minutes and yield curve inversion risks) – Essential for fixed-income allocators.
Reuters: “Tesla Robotaxi: The Road to $1T Valuation or Bust?” (Analyst breakdowns on FSD monetization) – Tech bulls vs. bears debate.
WSJ: “China’s Mega-Stimulus: Winners and Losers in Global Supply Chains” (Sector heatmaps for industrials and materials) – Must-read for commodity desks.
FT: “AI Chip Shortage: How AMD is Eating Nvidia’s Lunch” (Supply chain forecasts through 2026) – Semiconductor portfolio tweaks.
CoinDesk: “BTC at $70K: ETF Flows vs. Regulatory Headwinds” (On-chain data and macro overlays) – Crypto exposure strategies.
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