Issue #31 - 🧭 Volatility Returns — But Opportunity May Be Right Behind It

In partnership with

Crypto’s Most Influential Event

This May 5-7 in 2026, Consensus will bring the largest crypto conference in the Americas to Miami’s electric epicenter of finance, technology, and culture.

Celebrated as ‘The Super Bowl of Blockchain’, Consensus Miami will gather 20,000 industry leaders, investors, and executives from across finance, Web3, and AI for three days of market-moving intel, meaningful connections, and accelerated business growth.

Ready to invest in what’s next? Consensus is your best bet to unlock the future, get deals done, and party with purpose. You can’t afford to miss it.

Register & Save 20% with BEEHIIV

What’s in this issue

This week’s issue dives into why defensive sectors are holding firm, what investors should watch as banks report, and how AI, cybersecurity, and semiconductors are redefining the next leg of the market cycle.

House Keeping

Feel free to share our newsletter with friends: Click here to spread the word.

We'd love to hear from you! Send your feedback to [email protected].

Help Us Reach 1,000 Subscribers!

Once we hit this milestone, I’ll start exclusive interviews with top finance executives—bringing you insider insights and in-depth scoops you won’t find anywhere else.

Forward to friends, colleagues & family and help us reach our goal of providing game-changing conversations!

Weekly Movement - Heatmaps

Global Markets Sink as Trump Revives US-China Trade Fears

• Global equities tumbled on Friday after former President Trump reignited US-China trade tensions, sparking a broad risk-off move across regions. In the US, major indices plunged as investors reacted to Trump’s renewed tariff threats on Chinese imports, raising fears of fresh supply chain disruptions and inflationary pressures; tech and industrials bore the brunt of the sell-off, dragging the S&P 500 and Nasdaq sharply lower.

• European stocks mirrored the rout, with the Stoxx 600 suffering its steepest fall in months as renewed tariff worries hit exporters and cyclical sectors across Germany and France.

• Meanwhile in London, the FTSE 100 edged lower but fared slightly better, cushioned by strength in software firm Sage after an upbeat broker note from Citi, even as gold miners slumped on profit-taking. The renewed trade war rhetoric underscored the fragility of recent market gains, with investors once again positioning defensively amid fears of a global slowdown.

📌 What This Means for Investors

• Rising US-China trade tensions could reignite inflation pressures and weigh on global growth-sensitive sectors.

• Export-heavy European firms may face renewed earnings risks if tariffs escalate.

• UK investors may look toward defensive or domestically focused names as global trade uncertainty intensifies.

What is Moving the Markets This Week

Utilities and Consumer Defensives Outperform Amid Broader Losses:

These defensive sectors gained 1.28% and 0.47% respectively, providing a buffer as tech and growth stocks tumbled on trade tensions.

Nvidia’s Role in a Potential AI Market Crash

Morgan Stanley’s Lisa Shalett warned that the U.S. stock market’s recent surge is heavily dependent on massive spending in generative AI infrastructure, mostly driven by a handful of companies like Nvidia, which recently invested $100 billion in OpenAI; she fears this narrow focus could lead to a “Cisco moment” akin to the dotcom crash, possibly within 24 months, as overinvestment and circular financing create systemic risks that may cause a sharp market correction when the AI infrastructure buildout slows or falters.

Dell Thriving?

• Dell Technologies has raised its long-term growth targets significantly, driven by surging demand for AI infrastructure. The company now projects annual revenue growth between 7% and 9%, up from the previous forecast of 3% to 4%, and aims for adjusted earnings per share growth of at least 15%, nearly doubling its prior target of 8%.

• CEO Michael Dell highlighted strong customer demand for AI computing, storage, and networking solutions, which has helped expand Dell’s AI business to $20 billion in just two years. The company also committed to raising its quarterly dividend by at least 10% annually through fiscal 2030. This optimistic outlook reflects Dell’s leading position in AI server technology and its ability to capitalize on a rapidly growing market sector.

Upgrade now for exclusive daily summaries straight to your inbox.

Top Economic News This Week

Crypto Markets Suffer $19 Billion Crash Amid US-China Trade War Escalation: Bitcoin briefly surged past $125,000 before a massive liquidation event wiped out billions, reflecting intensified geopolitical risks spilling into digital assets. Read more

Fed Minutes

• In September 2025, Federal Reserve officials showed a strong consensus for lowering interest rates due to signs of a weakening labor market, resulting in a 0.25 percentage point cut to a target range of 4.00% to 4.25%. However, there was division among members on the number of additional cuts needed, ranging from two to three by the end of the year.

• While most participants agreed on further easing to support the economy, concerns about persistent inflation remained, with some officials advocating a more cautious approach. The Fed emphasized careful monitoring of incoming economic data, particularly labor market indicators, to guide future rate decisions amid ongoing uncertainty.

Inflation Across Europe & US

• For October 2025, inflation tracking across the US and Europe shows mixed but telling signals amid data release challenges due to the US government shutdown.

• US Inflation Data October 2025

• The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) monthly increase for October 2025 is now estimated via Fed “nowcasting” at approximately 0.24% month-on-month, with an annual CPI inflation rate around 3.00%. Core CPI (excluding food and energy) is similarly at 2.93% year-over-year.

• The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, closely monitored by the Fed, is estimated at 2.79% annually, with core PCE at 2.81%, showing a moderate inflation environment.

• The government shutdown has delayed official detailed data releases, but the Labor Department has confirmed it will release the CPI inflation report using crucial staffing, relieving some immediate data concerns.

• The CPI rise is partly driven by shelter costs, food, and energy prices, though energy inflation has seen mixed trends with some easing in fuel prices.

• Monthly rates in September and August showed a modest rise in inflation, reinforcing a sustained inflation picture hovering around 3% annual growth.

European Inflation October 2025

• Across Europe, inflation has accelerated in major economies such as Germany, France, Italy, and Spain in September 2025. German consumer price inflation rose 2.4% year-over-year, the fastest pace since February 2025.

• The inflation uptick in Europe is mostly attributed to rising services costs and energy price influences despite some renewable energy easing in parts of the continent.

• Switzerland shows lower inflation relative to the rest of Europe at the moment, creating differing policy challenges within the Eurozone and neighbouring economies.

• This regional inflation rise supports the European Central Bank’s decision to keep interest rates stable, balancing inflation containment with economic growth concerns.

• Tariffs and geopolitical economic risks continue to influence price levels and inflation expectations throughout the EU.

Things I’m Paying Attention To

ChatGPT New Development

OpenAI’s recent launch of “apps in ChatGPT” significantly shifts the platform from a simple chatbot to a powerful AI-driven app ecosystem. By integrating popular services like Spotify, Canva, Figma, Booking.com, Expedia, Coursera, and Zillow, users can now perform a range of interactive tasks—from creating playlists to booking trips or searching for real estate—entirely through natural conversation.

This move is supported by OpenAI’s new Apps SDK, which allows developers to build in-chat apps using the Model Context Protocol, fostering seamless, real-time integrations between ChatGPT and external services.

Early partners gain direct access to ChatGPT’s massive user base, giving them a notable first-mover advantage, while infrastructure providers such as Microsoft stand to benefit from handling increased AI workloads.

This development positions OpenAI and its partner network at the center of a new AI “app store” paradigm, with ChatGPT evolving into a central hub for digital tasks and transactions. Analysts and company leaders highlight the monetisation potential for developers and the huge enterprise market opportunity as more businesses integrate their own apps into ChatGPT for support, analytics, and workflow automation.

The move is expected to spur increased adoption by both consumers and enterprises, making early partner companies as well as developer consultancies (which help firms create in-chat apps) key beneficiaries in the coming months.

Cybersecurity Industry

The global cybersecurity industry is undergoing rapid growth and transformation, primarily driven by the adoption of artificial intelligence (AI), with the AI-influenced cybersecurity market projected to rise from $34.10 billion in 2025 to $234.64 billion by 2032 at a compound annual growth rate of 31.7%.

North America leads the sector, supported by high-tech enterprises and established security players, while sectors like BFSI, IT & telecom, and healthcare are key drivers for adoption. AI’s impact is evident across real-time threat detection, behavioral analytics, and the prevention of increasingly sophisticated cyber threats—including ransomware and social engineering attacks—demonstrating value through enhanced automation, rapid breach identification, and improved security operations center capabilities. The surge in adoption of generative AI is both a catalyst for new opportunities and a source of emerging risks, requiring continuous reassessment of security infrastructures, strong governance, and tailored AI-based training.

As market leaders invest in expansion, infrastructure partnerships, and the consolidation of unified platforms, the industry focus remains on sustainable high-margin growth and proactive response to evolving digital and regulatory environments. This ongoing paradigm shift is reinforced by increased regulatory attention, particularly in regions like Europe and Asia-Pacific, aiming to ensure ethical and resilient AI strategies across all facets of cybersecurity.

Hot Take 🔥

Intel’s turnaround is finally showing up in real time, driven by U.S. government backing, next-gen chips, and aggressive restructuring. But the road is still bumpy—Intel’s stock has soared 85% this year, yet profit remains under pressure, and deep cost cuts signal how tough the reboot is.

Looking Forward: What We Anticipate Next Week

🗽 Market Watch: Earnings Season Kicks Off Amid Tariff Turbulence

With the U.S. government shutdown dragging on and key economic releases delayed, investors will finally get a fresh catalyst this week: the long-awaited kickoff of Q3 earnings season. It comes at a tense moment for markets. The Stock Market just suffered its worst selloff since April’s tariff shock, after President Donald Trump escalated rhetoric against China — accusing Beijing of “hostile” export controls on rare earths and threatening a 100% tariff on additional Chinese imports.

Renewed trade tensions, combined with missing data and Fed uncertainty, have left traders searching for direction.

That direction may come from corporate America itself.

💼 Earnings in Focus

The spotlight shines squarely on the major U.S. banks, which will set the tone for the quarter. Beyond financials, a few global heavyweights — from Johnson & Johnson to American Express — will also help gauge the health of consumer and corporate spending.

Monday · Oct 13 — Fastenal (FAST)

Tuesday · Oct 14 — JPMorgan (JPM), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Wells Fargo (WFC), Goldman Sachs (GS), BlackRock (BLK), Citigroup (C)

Wednesday · Oct 15 — Bank of America (BAC), Morgan Stanley (MS), Abbott Laboratories (ABT)

Thursday · Oct 16 — Charles Schwab (SCHW), Bank of NY Mellon (BK), U.S. Bancorp (USB)

Friday · Oct 17 — American Express (AXP), State Street (STT)

💡 Spotlight:

• JPMorgan, the nation’s largest bank, leads off on Tuesday investors will watch for insights on loan demand, credit quality, and margin trends.

• Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley could shed light on deal-making and trading activity amid a volatile quarter.

• Johnson & Johnson, Abbott Labs, and AmEx round out the week, offering a view into healthcare demand and consumer resilience.

🌍 Macro & Policy Watch

While earnings dominate the week, several key data points abroad will give investors a read on inflation, employment, and housing trends — all with policy implications for major central banks.

Tuesday — UK Unemployment Rate

▶️ Forecast: 4.7% | Previous: 4.7%

➡️ A steady reading signals a stable labor market, giving the BoE room to stay cautious on rate cuts.

Wednesday — U.S. Inflation Rate (YoY)

📈 Forecast: 3.0% | Previous: 2.9%

➡️ Headline inflation may tick higher, but any softening in core prices would support the Fed’s current dovish stance.

Thursday — Australia Unemployment & U.S. PPI

📉 Australia Forecast: 4.3% | Previous: 4.2%

➡️ A small uptick could give the RBA more scope to ease policy.

📊 U.S. PPI Forecast: 2.5% | Previous: 2.6%

➡️ Lower producer prices would back the Fed’s soft-landing narrative — but any surprise uptick could cap expectations for further cuts.

Friday — U.S. Housing Starts (MoM)

📈 Forecast: +1.0% | Previous: −8.5%

➡️ A rebound here would signal that lower mortgage rates are finally filtering through to the housing market.

🧭 The Takeaway

This week marks the official start of Q3 earnings season, led by the banks. Their commentary on lending, credit, and consumer trends will set the tone for how markets interpret both the economic slowdown and the Fed’s next move. At the same time, geopolitics and inflation remain key swing factors. With tariffs back in focus and the Fed walking a fine line between easing and inflation control, expect volatility — but also opportunity for selective stock pickers as earnings unfold.

ICYMI

Emerging Markets Show Resilience to Global Shocks: IMF reports praise better policies and deeper capital markets in EMs for buffering hits from US fiscal drama and trade spats, with inflows rebounding 15% YTD. This bolsters global risk appetite, indirectly lifting commodity exporters and diversified US multinationals, though yen volatility from Japan’s new PM adds cross-currency headwinds for importers.

Record Call Buying Fuels ‘Gamma Squeeze’ in Equities: Goldman data shows unprecedented bullish options volume last week, driving dealers to hedge by scooping up stocks and ETFs—propelling the S&P 500 to intraday highs before a Friday unwind. This rented-rally dynamic signals frothy sentiment, potentially amplifying volatility if big-money flows reverse, with indirect ties to broader leverage in housing and credit markets.

What Else is Happening?

Trade noise tests resilience, Fed hints curb exuberance, and structural shifts like inequality or supply risks brew longer-term volatility. Bulls hold the line, but cracks are showing.

Useful Links

Markets News, Oct. 10: Stocks End Sharply Lower on US-China Tensions – Trade war echoes and weekly wrap.

FOMC Minutes: Hawkish Tilt on Inflation – Parsing the Fed’s next moves.

IMF: EMs Better Armed Against Shocks – Global flows and risk-on vibes.

Record Options Frenzy Sparks Gamma Risks – Behind the squeeze mechanics.

Join the conversation

We're inviting you to be part of our growing investment group! Join us via the link below for discussions, insights, and more

Join our investment group

Access Exclusive Investment Theses

If you’re interested in accessing my personal investment theses on 20+ promising stocks, let me know. I continuously update and share insights as I identify new opportunities.

Disclaimer

Please remember this is not investment advice—I'm simply sharing my personal opinions and research. Always conduct your own due diligence before making any investment decisions.