Issue #26 - Global Markets Under Pressure | Nvidia, Alibaba & Fed Signals in Focus

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What’s in this issue;

Issue #26 covers a week of mixed market signals as inflation and growth concerns weighed on U.S., U.K., and European equities. We explore Alibaba’s AI-driven cloud growth, Nvidia’s AI leadership, and Intel’s warning over U.S. government ownership, alongside Buffett’s disappointment in Kraft Heinz’s split and Google’s antitrust win.

Key macro developments—including Fed and ECB policy, US inflation, and UK GDP—frame a volatile outlook, while geopolitical tensions and gold rallies highlight safe-haven flows. Investors will want to track upcoming earnings from Adobe, Oracle, Kroger, and tech leaders, plus pivotal economic releases shaping monetary policy decisions.

Key Topics in This Issue:

• Weekly Market Heatmaps: US, UK, and European performance trends and sector moves.

• Major Corporate News: Nvidia, Alibaba, Intel, Kraft Heinz, Google, Broadcom x OpenAI partnership.

• Economic Data & Central Banks: US jobs, PPI, CPI, Eurozone inflation, UK GDP, Fed & ECB signals.

• Global Events & Geopolitics: Trade, international conflicts, and disaster updates affecting markets.

• Investor Opportunities: AI innovations, tech and retail earnings, and ethical investing trends.

• Forward Look: Key earnings and economic releases to watch next week.

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Weekly Movement - Heatmaps

Global markets ended the week under pressure, but the drivers differed by region.

In the US, stocks slipped as a sharp slowdown in hiring — just 22,000 jobs added in August with June revised to losses — raised fears of stagflation, overshadowing optimism for Fed rate cuts; Tesla and Broadcom rallied on company-specific news, while Lululemon sank on a profit warning.

In London, the FTSE 100 edged lower but the FTSE 250 gained, as investors weighed weak US data against resilient UK signals, including stronger retail sales and rising house prices, which lifted housebuilders even as asset manager Ashmore and insurer Admiral struggled.

Across Europe, sentiment was hit harder, with the Stoxx 600, FTSE Mib and Cac-40 all falling as Germany’s steep drop in factory orders deepened recession concerns and political risk in France added to uncertainty; corporate moves saw Hexagon surge, Temenos tumble, and Orsted inch higher despite a weaker outlook.

What is Moving the Markets This Week

Alibaba Shares Surge 19% in Hong Kong on Strong Cloud Growth and New AI Chip Development

Alibaba’s shares in Hong Kong jumped 19%, marking their biggest daily gain in over three years, driven by strong quarterly results from its cloud computing division and news of a new AI chip development. The cloud unit grew revenue by 26% year on year, benefiting from rising demand for AI services, which Alibaba views as a key growth driver alongside e-commerce.

Additionally, Alibaba is expanding its quick commerce segment with rapid delivery services across China, though this has caused temporary margin pressure. The strong earnings showed a 78% rise in net profit for the quarter ending June, boosting investor optimism about Alibaba’s AI investments and overall business recovery. This cloud growth and AI focus have prompted analysts to raise price targets, and Alibaba’s Hong Kong shares have risen 66% year to date.

Buffett Disappointed as Kraft Heinz Splits—Merger Doesn’t Solve Deep-Seated Issues

Kraft Heinz, originally formed by the 2015 mega-merger backed by Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway and 3G Capital, is now poised to divide into two independent, publicly traded companies—Global Taste Elevation Co., housing high-performing global brands like Heinz, Philadelphia, and Kraft Mac & Cheese, and North American Grocery Co., encompassing slower-growing staples such as Oscar Mayer, Lunchables, and Kraft Singles.

The split—expected to conclude by late 2026—aims to streamline operations and better allocate resources, but comes with a hefty cost of roughly $300 million. Warren Buffett, who still holds a 27–27.5% stake in the company, expressed disappointment in the move, lamenting that neither the breakup nor the original merger were “brilliant ideas,” and noted shareholders won’t have a vote on the split. Analysts remain cautious—while the restructuring may boost focus and innovation, concerns linger over the long-term profitability and growth potential of especially the North American grocery division    

Google Stock Soars After Court Rules It Need Not Sell Chrome or Android

A U.S. federal judge has delivered a landmark antitrust ruling in favor of Google: the company will not be required to divest its Chrome browser or Android operating system, as sought by the Department of Justice, although it must end exclusive search contracts and share certain search data with competitors.

Investors cheered the decision, sending Alphabet’s stock surging roughly 8–9%, backed by relief that Google retains its core platforms and key revenue channels with partners like Apple. While the ruling eases immediate breakup fears, critics argue the penalties are too light and do little to curb Google’s dominance in search and AD Tech.

Top Economic News This Week

• The ISM Services PMI for August indicated the health of the U.S. services sector, a crucial driver of economic momentum amid manufacturing contraction. Its results affected recession fears and Fed easing expectations.

• Political uncertainty around Federal Reserve’s independence, particularly following President Trump’s attempt to remove a Fed Governor, raised concerns about potential policy missteps influencing markets’ volatility, safe-haven assets, and overall sentiment

Additionally, the UK sees mixed economic signals, with slowing house price growth, rising inflation pressures, and labor market weakening accompanied by political and fiscal challenges, including high government borrowing costs and debates about public spending.

These developments frame a week of market volatility centered on central bank policies, employment data, and geopolitical risks.

Things I’m Paying Attention To

OpenAI Launches Jobs Platform and Certification Program to Broaden Economic Opportunity with AI

In a post dated September 4, 2025, OpenAI’s CEO of Applications, Fidji Simo, underscored the company’s mission to expand economic opportunity through AI by focusing on access and fluency. To that end, OpenAI is building the OpenAI Jobs Platform, which uses AI to match employers—ranging from large firms to local businesses and governments—with skilled candidates, while ensuring these matches are meaningful for the respective skill sets and job needs.

Complementing this, OpenAI is introducing OpenAI Certifications, grounded in the free OpenAI Academy platform that has already served over two million learners; these certifications—ranging from basic AI usage to advanced prompt engineering—can be earned directly within ChatGPT’s Study mode. OpenAI aims to certify 10 million Americans by 2030, working with partners like Walmart, Indeed, Accenture, and regional bodies such as the Texas Association of Business and the Bay Area Council to align training with real-world employment demands and ensure broader, inclusive economic empowerment through AI.

Broadcom x Open AI Partnership

Broadcom has partnered with OpenAI to co-develop and produce OpenAI's first ever custom AI chip, with shipments expected to start in 2026. This strategic collaboration is aimed at reducing OpenAI's reliance on Nvidia GPUs by creating specialised AI accelerators tailored for OpenAI's inference workloads and internal use.

Broadcom secured a $10 billion order from OpenAI for AI server racks using these custom chips, representing a major move for Broadcom into the AI chip market and a significant challenge to Nvidia’s dominance. The deal is set to boost Broadcom's AI revenue and mark a notable step in in-house AI hardware development by OpenAI.

Key details:

• The partnership involves designing and producing AI accelerator chips specifically for OpenAI's internal AI model operations.

• The chips are expected to be shipped starting in 2026.

• The deal is valued at over $10 billion in orders.

• Broadcom's CEO hinted at a major new client in AI hardware with substantial demand, widely identified as OpenAI.

• This partnership helps OpenAI reduce costs and gain performance advantages by moving away from expensive Nvidia GPU reliance.

• Broadcom’s shares surged following the announcement, reflecting investor excitement about the AI market opportunity.

This partnership not only elevates Broadcom's position in the AI chip market but also aligns with an industry trend of large AI firms developing custom silicon to optimise their AI workloads and reduce costs.

Looking Forward: What We Anticipate Next Week

Markets face a pivotal few days as investors weigh inflation signals against growth concerns. In the United States, producer prices, consumer inflation, and sentiment data will be closely watched for their implications on Federal Reserve policy.

Europe’s focus will be the ECB interest rate decision, while the United Kingdom’s GDP release will provide a key test of economic resilience. Although earnings season is winding down, several major technology companies and retailers are still due to report.

On Wednesday, attention turns to the US Producer Price Index, which is forecast to rise 0.6% compared with the previous 0.9%. A softer reading would suggest tariffs are exerting less upward pressure on inflation than feared. The European Central Bank will also deliver its interest rate decision, with no change expected at 2.15%. However, any surprise cut would indicate mounting concern over the Eurozone’s economic outlook.

Thursday brings the latest US inflation figures, with the year-on-year rate expected to edge up to 2.8% from 2.7%. A stronger-than-expected reading could reignite fears that tariffs are fuelling inflationary pressures, potentially delaying the Federal Reserve’s plans for rate cuts.

Friday’s focus shifts to the UK, where monthly GDP growth is forecast to slow sharply to 0.1% from 0.4%. Such a result would intensify recession worries and strengthen the case for further Bank of England easing. Later in the day, the University of Michigan releases its consumer sentiment index for the US, expected to fall to 57.0 from 58.2. Softer sentiment would highlight growing caution among consumers and the risk of slower spending ahead.

Earnings season is nearing its close, but notable reports are still expected from Adobe, Oracle, Synopsys, Kroger, Rubrik, and Chewy, providing further insight into the health of the technology and retail sectors.

Overall, the week ahead will test the balance between inflation concerns and slowing growth across major economies.

Central bank decisions and economic data releases could shift expectations for monetary policy, while earnings updates may offer clues on how businesses are navigating this uncertain backdrop.

ICYMI

International relations and conflicts

• Australia will pay Nauru to accept foreign born criminals expelled from Australia.

• South Korea suspended military radio broadcasts to North Korea for the first time in 15 years to reduce tensions.

• Burkina Faso criminalised homosexuality with prison sentences and fines.

• Gaza war developments include a Hamas video showing Israeli hostages.

• M23 rebels and armed forces in the Democratic Republic of Congo are accused of serious abuses and war crimes.

• US Venezuela tensions with military actions linked to drug cartels and diplomatic accusations.

Disasters and incidents

• Over 2,200 deaths reported from an earthquake in Afghanistan’s Nangarhar Province.

• London bus crash near Victoria Station injured 17 people, with 15 hospitalised.

Health and policy

• Florida is eliminating all vaccination mandates for school and children.

• New Ebola outbreak declared in the Democratic Republic of Congo.

Miscellaneous

• UK’s National Emergency Alert System conducted a test causing mobile phones to vibrate and sound a siren.

• Tube strikes began in London, lengthening to five days, affecting London Underground services.

• Deputy UK Labour Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner resigned after a ministerial code ethics breach.

• Sports: Aryna Sabalenka defended her US Open Women’s Singles Title; Max Verstappen set fastest F1 lap.

• Cultural and social news included discussions on visible differences stigma in the UK and a new Bluey movie announced for 2027 release.

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