Issue #20 - 📰Breaking: S&P Records, Tech Twists, and Crypto Surges!

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What’s in this issue;

Welcome back in this this week’s newsletter we dive into the activity in the markets and global economic shifts. The S&P 500 celebrated its 14th record close of the year,

fueled by positive earnings and trade news, including President Trump's $550 billion deal with Japan.

Meanwhile, tech titans Tesla and Alphabet had contrasting weeks, with Tesla warning of hurdles and Alphabet making bold investments.

We also explore LVMH’s landmark $800 million stake in Flexjet, shaking up the private aviation market.

Additionally, U.S. tariffs on Chinese graphite ignited supply chain tensions, while unexpected tariffs continued to rattle global trade dynamics.

Looking ahead, major earnings from giants like Apple and Amazon and critical economic data, including the Fed’s interest rate decision, are set to drive market sentiment.

Lastly, we turn our lens to the thriving crypto market, buoyed by robust UK regulations and surging institutional investments, propelling assets like Bitcoin to new heights.

Enjoy this packed issue of market and economic insights!

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Weekly Movement - Heatmaps

Wall Street wrapped up an electrifying week, with the S&P 500 notching its 14th record close of the year at 6,388.64 points. The market’s enthusiasm was fueled by progress on global trade and upbeat earnings from major companies.

President Donald Trump made headlines by announcing a massive trade deal with Japan, promising a $550 billion investment in the U.S. and imposing a 15% tariff on Japanese goods.

Hints of further progress with China and the EU kept investors buzzing with anticipation.

Elsewhere, the week was marked by political and monetary intrigue as Trump visited the Federal Reserve, sparking a public spat with Chair Jerome Powell over spending and rate cuts.

On the corporate front, Tesla’s shares tumbled after reporting its steepest revenue drop since 2012, with Elon Musk warning of tough times ahead. Meanwhile, Alphabet overcame expectations and announced substantial new investments, delighting investors.

Overall, the S&P 500 climbed 1.5%, the Nasdaq gained 1.0%, and the Dow rose 1.3%, capping off a memorable week for the markets.

What is Moving the Markets This Week

LVMH’s L Catterton Makes Record $800 Million Investment in Flexjet, Shaking Up Luxury Private Aviation Market

L Catterton, the private equity arm affiliated with LVMH and led by Bernard Arnault, has invested $800 million for a 20% stake in private jet provider Flexjet, valuing the company at $4 billion—making this the largest equity investment ever in the private aviation sector.

This landmark deal positions Flexjet as a major competitor to Warren Buffett’s NetJets and aims to fuse LVMH’s luxury brand expertise with Flexjet’s exclusive “private club” aviation model, which includes high-end services, branded terminals, bespoke experiences, and fleet expansion, particularly in Europe and through new long-range aircraft.

The move reflects a strategic push by luxury brands into experiential travel, targeting ultra-high-net-worth clients with unique offerings in both air travel and tailored concierge services.

US Imposes 93.5% Tariff on Chinese Graphite, Raising Total to 160% Amid Battery Supply Chain Tensions

The US Commerce Department has imposed preliminary anti-dumping duties of 93.5% on Chinese graphite imports, a key material for electric vehicle batteries, after determining these were unfairly subsidised.

This adds to existing tariffs, bringing the effective rate to 160%, which industry experts say significantly increases costs for battery manufacturers, potentially wiping out profits for some producers.

The move follows complaints from US graphite producers and aims to boost domestic production, though it complicates supply chains that heavily rely on Chinese graphite.

Tesla and Panasonic opposed the tariffs, citing quality and volume concerns. The tariffs highlight growing trade tensions and supply risks in the EV battery sector, with graphite expected to remain the dominant anode material in lithium-ion batteries for the foreseeable future.

Trump’s Industry-Specific Tariffs Create Economic Chaos and Global Trade Uncertainty

Donald Trump’s policy of imposing unpredictable, high, industry-specific tariffs on countries like Canada, the EU, Mexico, Vietnam, and China has resulted in widespread economic disruption and uncertainty.

Instead of a consistent trade strategy, the tariffs are applied unevenly—sometimes escalating to 50-60%—triggering retaliatory measures and complicating global supply chains.

These tariffs have not lowered the US trade deficit but instead raised costs for American businesses and consumers, reduced investment, and led to inflation pressures.

While some countries seek to diversify trade partnerships and deepen cooperation elsewhere, the US risks losing influence in shaping global trade rules.

Experts warn that the trade turmoil could reduce long-term US GDP by around 6% and wages by 5%, damaging economic growth and increasing the risk of recession without clear economic justification or policy coherence.

Meta Hiring Spree

Meta Platforms has recently hired two key artificial intelligence researchers, Mark Lee and Tom Gunter, who were formerly with Apple Inc., following the earlier recruitment of their former manager by Meta.

These hires are part of Meta’s Superintelligence Labs team, with Lee already starting at Meta and Gunter set to join soon.

This move highlights Meta’s ongoing efforts to strengthen its AI capabilities by acquiring top talent from major competitors like Apple.

Tesla’s Declining EV Sales Put Pressure on Ambitious Robotaxi Rollout Amid Regulatory Challenges

Tesla faces significant challenges as its core electric vehicle sales decline 13% in the first half of 2025, partly due to an aging lineup and brand issues linked to CEO Elon Musk’s political activism.

To counter this, Tesla is pinning hopes on launching robotaxi services, aiming to cover half of the U.S. population by year-end and to scale by late 2026.

However, regulatory hurdles—especially in California where permits for autonomous operations remain pending—and a currently limited pilot fleet in Austin, Texas, pose considerable obstacles.

Investors express concern over the slow rollout and uncertain timeline of robotaxis, which Musk has repeatedly promised since 2016 but has yet to deliver, while the company’s stock value relies heavily on autonomous driving as a future growth driver.

Top Economic News

The European Central Bank (ECB) held rates steady

At its July meeting, with markets expecting only one more rate cut in 2025, likely in September.

Flash PMIs showed tentative upticks in services growth in the eurozone, UK, and Japan amid easing geopolitical tensions and delayed US tariff hikes.

Inflation in the eurozone is around the ECB target of 2%, but growth concerns remain.

Key data for the week included UK retail sales and German consumer confidence surveys.

Looking Forward: What We Anticipate Next Week

Wall Street is gearing up for one of the busiest weeks of the summer as dozens of major U.S. companies, including Microsoft, Meta Platforms, Apple, and Amazon, are set to report their quarterly earnings.

This earnings flood, totaling reports from 163 S&P 500 companies, comes amid a market environment of record highs and elevated valuations, raising concerns about a potential selloff.

Alongside earnings, investors will closely monitor a packed economic calendar that features key reports such as the second estimate of U.S. Q2 GDP growth, updates on labor market data culminating in the July nonfarm payrolls report, and the Federal Reserve’s highly anticipated interest rate decision expected Wednesday.

Market participants will also be watching President Donald Trump’s diplomatic activities in Scotland, where he plans to meet European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.

The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy committee is widely expected to hold interest rates steady despite President Trump’s ongoing pressure for a rate cut, with the market pricing in only a low chance of a cut this week but some possibility in the coming months.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s post-decision remarks will be particularly scrutinised as investors seek guidance on the central bank’s outlook amid recent political tensions. Traders also look ahead to various economic indicators such as initial jobless claims, home sales, and inflation data, which will contribute to assessing the health of the U.S. economy.

While the stock market remains optimistic with record levels, analysts warn of risks given high valuations and growing event risks during this crucial week.

Monday 28th July

Earnings

• Waste Management (WM)

• Nucor (NUE)

• Other notable: Bank of Hawaii, Enterprise Products, Revvity, among others.

Tuesday 29th July

Earnings

• Visa (V)

• Procter & Gamble (PG)

• UnitedHealth (UNH)

• Boeing (BA)

• PayPal (PYPL)

Others reporting include UPS, Spotify, Starbucks, etc..

Key Events

JOLTS Job Openings

• Forecast: 7.3M (Previous: 7.769M)

• Implication: A decline signals a cooling labor market and easing inflation pressures, closely watched by the Fed.

Wednesday 30th July

Earnings

• Microsoft (MSFT)

• Meta Platforms (META)

• Qualcomm (QCOM)

• Robinhood (HOOD)

• eBay (EBAY)

• Along with VRT, UBS, TT, and many more.

Key Events:

Germany GDP Growth Rate YoY (Flash)

• Forecast: 0.1% (Previous: 0.4%)

• Why it matters: Minimal growth in Germany shapes ECB policy and EU economic outlook.

US GDP Growth Rate QoQ (Advance)

• Forecast: 2.5% (Previous: -0.5%)

• Why it matters: A rebound confirms US economic resilience and influences Fed policy choices.

Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision

• Forecast: Hold at 2.75%

• Why it matters: Pause expected; hawkish hints could shift future rate cut expectations.

Thursday 31st July

Earnings

• Apple (AAPL)

• Amazon.com (AMZN)

• Mastercard (MA)

• Additional major companies include UL, SYK, SPGI.

Key Events

Fed Interest Rate Decision

• Forecast: 4.5% (Previous: 4.5%)

• Why it matters: No change expected, but statement and press conference will provide clues on rate cuts.

Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decision

• Forecast: 0.5% (Previous: 0.5%)

• Why it matters: BOJ remains an outlier; tightening signals could affect global bonds and currencies.

Core PCE Price Index MoM

• Forecast: 0.3% (Previous: 0.2%)

• Why it matters: Fed’s favored inflation gauge; a higher print may delay rate cuts.

Friday 1st August

Earnings

• Exxon Mobil (XOM)

• Chevron (CVX)

• Other companies include Ares Management, Cboe Global Markets, Colgate-Palmolive, and many more.

Key Events:

Caixin Manufacturing PMI

• Forecast: 50.8 (Previous: 50.4)

• Why it matters: Expansion above 50 signals improving conditions for China’s smaller manufacturers, easing global growth concerns.

Non-Farm Payrolls

• Forecast: 110K (Previous: 147K)

• Why it matters: Slower job growth may indicate weakening labor market momentum, supporting Fed easing expectations.

Unemployment Rate

• Forecast: 4.2% (Previous: 4.1%)

• Why it matters: A slight rise could reassure the Fed that wage inflation pressures are easing.

Things I’m Paying Attention To

Crypto markets are experiencing strong growth driven by significant UK regulatory developments that bring cryptoassets under robust financial regulation, boosting institutional confidence.

Institutional investment is surging, with many investors allocating substantial portions of their portfolios to a broader range of digital assets beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum, favouring regulated products like ETFs and ETPs.

Bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies have repeatedly broken all-time highs, fueled by increased macro liquidity, strong retail and institutional demand, and the launch of spot ETFs.

This combination of heavier regulation, institutional participation, and expanding product offerings is establishing crypto as a credible, mainstream asset class, though heightened volatility and the need for rigorous compliance remain key considerations going forward.

Any Target Updates (Companies I’m Watching)

Mainly on the crypto side I’m looking at;

• ETH

• XRP

• XLM

• Solana

• Cordano

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